Civilization's Future

Louisiana is providing stark evidence of humankind’s folly. Our quest for energy pushes into ever higher risk ventures. Common business practise requires minimum cost for maximum returns. Today’s net result has a gusher from 5000 to 25000 barrels of light crude escaping overlying rock, spreading into the Gulf of Mexico and heading shoreward to beach upon large river deltas.

What does this net result mean to the energy picture? In short, the 3 months at 25000 barrels a day is about 1.4e16 Joules or 18 minutes worth of global consumption of primary energy. We’ve lost this. But, we’re also going to lose huge swathes of the Gulf’s ecosystem for potentially many years. Not only will many people be without employment but they will also be unable to forage off the land or coastal waters. As well, the natural system will crash and perhaps never come back to its original state. The net result is that we’ve irreparably harmed some of the Earth’s ecosystem while hoping to maintain our energy dependent lifestyles a little longer.

What is the acceptable maximum level of risk for energy extraction? Wouldn’t it be better to rebuild our civilization to end its reliance upon fossil fuels rather than wait until we’ve consumed all reachable supplies?

photo: NASA

Energy keeps our technology thriving and maintains the lifestyles to which we’ve gotten accustomed. While energy supplies increase, we never concerned ourselves with prioritizing or choosing parts of our lives, of our civilization, that merits retention.

Pakistan’s energy supply has hit a wall. The citizens want to retain and augment their energy hungry lifestyle but they are unable to afford it. In response, they are decreasing hours worked by government personnel, banning lit billboards and forbidding all-night wedding parties. With this, they hope to save 1500 MW a day even though their present shortfall is 3668 MW (about 4% of consumption). Their energy crunch time has arrived.

Pakistan is one country and they may be able to fund additions to their energy supply and distribution system. They may not. As the reserves of non-renewable energy diminish world-wide how will our species respond to the decrease in energy supply? What will we choose to keep and what will we choose to let go when the crunch time becomes global?

During the first half of the eighteenth century, the French Navy began to develop a new type of vessel known as a ship of the line, featuring seventy-four guns. This type of ship became the backbone of all European fighting fleets. These ships were 56 metres (180 ft) long and their construction required 2,800 oak trees and 40 kilometres (25 mi) of rope; they carried a crew of about 800 sailors and soldiers.

Naval actions continued nearly unabated for most of that century. The Russians and Turks fought. Europe transformed under the War of the Austrian Succession. The Seven Years War and the American War of Independence stretched the conflict to a near global extent.

The British had up to 500 ships in their navy. Yet, their opponents had an equal and sometimes superior number. A typical war ship would sail for 30 years before being broken up.

Assume that about 10 significant navies existed in the 18th century. If each had 500 of the 74-gun ships that needing replacing each 30 years then overall they’d need 20,000 ships. Their construction would call for 56 000 000 oak trees. Even though most navies were smaller than the British and most ships were smaller than the 74, there’s no wonder that the European continent then the North American continent became near denuded of oak trees.

While everyday life continually presses upon us, there’s an over shadow of death that permeates down to our soul. We’re still waiting for verifiable proof that our earthly body has any value after our last breath gently escapes from our chest. Tutankhamun played the odds and aimed for a burial plan that would maintain his body for a very long time. Today, his remains tour the world and we see no evidence of his soul any place nearby.

Tutankhamun had the riches of an empire to apply to his burial. Not all of us are so lucky. But, we still have choices. There’s cremation at about 275 kWh (about 1e9 Joules) per body. Resomation requires about a third or 3.3e8 Joules. Woodland burial sites can be as low as simple transportation costs. They all consume much less energy than a pyramid or even a mausoleum.

Earth’s human population stands at 6.8 billion and grows exponentially. If cremation were the norm then we would have to apportion 6.7e18 Joules to accomodate this. Humanity’s annual energy consumption is 474e18 Joules. The space shuttle consumes about 2e13 Joules per mission. While cremation may assuage the spirits of the living, how does it benefit civilization’s future?

Paved highways facilitate the trade of goods and the journeying of travellers. With little physical effort people in a day can move themselves and large quantities of material along a distance farther than many creatures migrate. Given the ease of transport, often then the goal is simply for pleasure or personal gain.

India has a road network extending over 3.4 million kilometres. They plan on adding 20 kilometres a day for five years to improve their infrastructure. India is also home to the cheapest car, Tata’s Nano. This represents a serious investment by a nation that hopes this leads to economic growth and a lessening of poverty.

Where might this endeavour lead? Roads are only good for transport; they won’t nurture plants or animals. Cars age and fail thus adding greatly to a waste problem. How will this infrastructure avail as the supplies of petroleum inexorably shrink?