An Opportunity

Governments are committed to stopping tobacco use. Whether from lack of demand or through social conscious, farmer’s are dedicating less and less of their fields to tobacco growing. In acknowledgement of this, these tobacco growers are seeking government funds to help them(1).

Around the world, we use 4.1 million hectares of land to grow tobacco (2).

What’s an alternative? From an energy perspective, there’s the opportunity for farmers to grow crops for energy. Sorghum provides 5600 litres of ethanol per hectare. Replacing all the tobacco fields in the world with sorghum would provide about 2.3e10 litres of ethanol or 5.0e17 joules (500 petajoules) per year (3).

True, this is only 0.12% of the worlds energy consumption (4), but it is something.

Establishing a policy for croplands to optimize energy production over non-essentials would make deciding on government grants easier. Then, in addition to providing funds, governments could readily assist particular crop productions that aid our civilization. Hence, if our civilization’s goal were to have a managed energy source, we’d be well along the way.

Futurists could highlight the value of this philosophy. They could help it become policy. It’s an opportunity to guide our civilization to a more sustainable path, if this is what we want.

  1. Funding
  2. Area
  3. Sorghum energy density
  4. Energy consumption
Tobacco Sorghum Ethanol Refinery
Tobacco Sorghum Ethanol refinery
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Just on Time Management

Just on time management means no inventory. Raw material is delivered at the rate needed and when needed. This is a great process to minimize revenue tied up in non-productive activity. But, problems arise when the supply conduit fails.

On 2007 February 15, a fire broke out at Esso’s oil refinery in Nanticoke, Ontario. This, stopped half the daily processing of 118 000 barrels of crude(1). Further, due to other events, the transportation network was weakened. What were the effects?

Fear was a concern. Publicists cautioned the public not to go to gas stations, fill their gas tanks and every other container available as this would stress the system. Nevertheless, nearly 400 stations had questionable supplies. This wasn’t a problem in built-up areas as other providers supplies remained. But, there were towns that didn’t have this option.

Eight days later, nearly 75 of the 400 stations were still shut because they had no gas (2). Elliot Lake a city with a population of 12 000 had no gasoline. The nearest pump was 60 km away (3). The town of Spanish River was also dry.

Elliot Lake has a latitude of 46.23N. On February 16, its maximum temperature was -4.3C and its minimum temperature was -19C. Without a heat source, this climate is not easily tenable.

Cost and inconvenience were the main factors for the people of these communities as they could still get gasoline fuel. However, this took over an hour of time and 12 litres of gasoline just to have a nearly full tank. Some whispers did question their circumstances should even that supply fail. However, wisely, supply management kicked in and these communities were given priority for resupply.

The greatest concern seemed to be the short term cost at the pumps in Ontario. There is still unquestioning faith in the continual supply of this non-renewable supply. What will our civilization do when there is no resupply? One can not manage just-on-time supplies when there are no supplies. Sadly, this scenario is still only an issue for the futurists even though this momentous occasion may be nearer than most believe.

  1. Fire
  2. Supply
  3. Elliot Lake

Nanticoke No Fuel

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Photovoltaics

Photovoltaic power. The mere word makes some futurists smile. Limitless clean power from the Sun making all our worries go away. Reality tells a different story about this energy source.

First, let’s consider the idea of limitless clean power. There is a limit. The amount of sunlight reaching the Earth’s surface amounts to 2.68e16 watts(1). This equals 8.45e23 Joules/annum (J/a), a huge amount. Even considering a 30% efficiency, this amounts to 2.5e23 J/a which is much greater than our current power consumption of 4e20 J/a. The limit certainly seems high enough to not be a concern. Let’s assume so for now.

Now consider the cleanliness. First consider the direct detriments. To get all the power, we’d have to cover every square kilometre of land on Earth with photovoltaic cells. There’d be no room for plants, animals or people. On the plus side, skin cancer would be a thing of the past. On the negative side, the ecosystem would be destroyed and so would end our dominion. Let’s see how.

We’d subtract the land area needed for cropland and urban areas, about 15% (1). Though possible, it is not probable that we could cover the ice regions like Greenland and Antarctica. Thus reduce the value by another 39%. The remaining 46% consists of forests, grasslands and inhospitables like deserts. We cover these with solar panels and we’d push almost all other life to extinction. This is hardly a clean power supply.

Next for cleanliness is the consideration of logistics. Photovoltaics don’t use a chemical reaction to make power so in this they are clean. But, they need energy for fabricating the necessary components as well as a means for their delivery to the end user. Fabrication means silicon, steel and plastic get shaped into panels. And aside from the ancillary inverters and power metres, we need a storage capacity. Batteries! Today, off-grid homes need over 700 kg of lead and acid to store their captured energy(2). If all houses in the United States (3) were using photovoltaic they’d need 7.75e10 kg. True there’s likely enough lead and acid available. But it would need processing, transporting and recovery to and from each home. The same goes for the panels which need be fabricated, transported and recovered. Undertaking this process leads to heat and chemical waste. Hardly clean.

Another problem with photovoltaics is its inability to provide the energy when and where needed. Most of the habited world is in the temperate northern hemisphere. In their winter there’s little Sun for energy but a great need for heating. In a quick review of current off-grid houses in this region(3), none have photovoltaic as the primary heat source. Most use wood. A large percentage of humanity lives in this region and unless they move to warmer climates, they will have to look for their energy supplies from other than purely photovoltaic.

Yes, photovoltaics are a means to extend our technological ability. It can provide power for lights, refrigerators and non-essentials like computers and stereos. It’s woefully inadequate for interior air conditioning whether heating or cooling. It’s equally inadequate for massive energy needs such as aluminium smelting (4). It can’t replace the transportability and energy density of petroleum and natural gas. Photovoltaics aren’t the answer for tomorrow’s energy needs. Our worries shouldn’t go away just yet.

  1. My book
  2. Off-grid
  3. Housing
  4. Karahnjukar Power Station

PanelsStationsmelting

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Darfur

Africa has had many stories of ethnic strife. One of the more recent involves the Sudan. Here, up to 2 million people are living in camps. These recent, high density accommodations place a high demand on nearby resources. Yet, this area isn’t empty. It already has many people of many ethnicities who want to maintain their lives as much as the new residents want just to survive.

The most recent news refers to interactions between these two groups. Women from the camps are searching for wood to cook. When they leave the camps they might get attacked (1). They need the energy of the wood to maintain their standard of living. This is a common practise in this part of Africa. But this wood is also needed by the indigenous population. Once the wood is gone, many years will pass before the wood regrows.

A camp in the Darfur is known to house 60,000 people. These people need 7.5e11 J/day or 0.75 terajoules of food. If there are five people in a family and each family needs a fire to cook the evening meal, there’d be 12000 fires a night. If a fire uses 1 kilogram of wood, a tiny amount, then each night needs 12000 kg. This represents 0.21 terajoules of energy each night. If a branch were to weigh 2.5 kg, a generous amount, these people would need 4800 branches every night. Assume a tree has 200 branches. Thus every night, 24 trees are completely consumed and most certainly 24 new trees don’t instantly appear. High concentrations of people require large quantities of fuel.

The first night, people gather fallen wood nearby. The second night the traverse a bit farther. By the second week, they’re using bark and dead branches off the living trees. Eventually, they walk kilometres to get fallen branches or cut down nearby living trees. This is the situation the campers experience. Travel far and risk attack or remain close but remove all the trees, never to replace them.

Though this is severe, this is not unusual. The grasping for fuel extends across Chad and Sudan. Without humans, the expected vegetation cover is aged, broadleaf deciduous trees. Instead there are young, thin short trees (2). Yet it is vegetation that gives the people their safety. Without the protection of trees, the Sahara remorselessly crawls south at about 10 km/yr.

Hence, the camps are a microcosm of the countries. People need wood for fuel and material. If they take more than can be sustainably replenished, they will doom their future. Perhaps Sudan and Chad represent a microcosm of humanity’s actions on Earth. We strive ever harder to acquire energy but in so doing we nullify our future.

Just imagine all the cities in the near North temperate climate (e.g. Chicago) when natural gas and petroleum are exhausted. Wood is the only practicable alternative. The first night there is plenty. By the first week, we are taking from the living trees. By the first decade, there may be no trees left to get energy, heat and what will us northerners then do?

(1) Attack
(2) Deforestation

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Populations

In a perverse sense of economy, people are seen as just a resource. From a distributor’s point of view, more people mean more consumption. For an industrialist, more people mean more workers. For a government, more people mean more taxes and programs. This perfidious notion reduces people to being numbers on a chart.

Is this where we are going. In Japan there’s national outrage that the birthrate is dropping (1). The same occurs in Singapore where there are cries of shortage and a need to reach goals(2). They cry is the same across many other countries. There’s this untold urgency to fill a country’s borders with people.
Don’t get me wrong, babies are amazingly cute. Adored by me and almost everyone. Our primal urges lead us to procreation. But will there ever be an end to going forth and multiplying? At what point do we say that there’s enough people and we don’t need incentives for more?

In the natural world, populations have natural boom and bust cycles. Just watch the lemmings. For the last 20000 years, since the end of the last ice-age, the human population has been booming. Ready energy and copious living space has allowed for this. Will there be a bust? Nature says so. We can wait for the bust or we can manage a declining birthrate so that the eventual bust is minimized.

The next time there’s a cry for augmenting a birthrate, we’d do well to question the basis. Each new life will need 34 TJ <14>. We need be sure that the energy is available for the duration of these new lives. Else wise, we are dooming them to a non-pleasant existence.

NurseryGeriatric

(1) Japan
(2) Singapore

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