Month: March 2007

A Rich Man’s World

Posted on by Mark

Making wise investments is fraught with peril. No one can see the future with certainty. But, as the gamblers say, you’ve got to play to win. Playing is expensive in our energy based society as the following table shows. Here, rich men front the money and the average person hops on hoping they’re on the gravy train to a better life.

Construction Costs
3 Gorges Dam $25B
Mackenzie Delta project $16.2B
James Bay Power $13.7B
Sakhalin Two $20B
Alberta Oil sands – annually $10B
Exploration – British Petroleum for 2005 $30B
Darlington Nuclear Station $14.5B
All in dated dollars

Yet, money is an artificial construct. We see it as paper, a promissory note. Hence in reality all the energy development, and subsequent operating costs, have to be compensated by some base. The base is natural resources. We must utilize the natural resources of the land to compensate for the expense of these energy sources. The question then is whether natural resources can accommodate ever more expensive works. The following table provides estimates for the future as predicted by the oil industry(1). Can natural resources; farming, forestry and fisheries support this rich man’s burden?

Predicted Energy Investment 2005-2030
  Total Annual
Oil $4.3T $164B
Natural Gas $3.9T $150B
Infrastructure (including above) $20T $769B

(1) Oil Cost Prediction

Sakhalin Tarsands
Sakhalin Oilsands
James Bay Coal Mine
James Bay Coal Mine
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Housing Starts

Posted on by Mark

Economic indicators purportedly are a marker of the health of a nation. A significant indicator is housing starts[1]. A new house means a new family with demands for new furniture and appliances. Naturally, this new family begets more families. Such is the wonder of a growth economy. This is the path that all nations and our civilization has been taking globally.

What are the implications of housing starts. Almost without fail, new houses are constructed on land which had no other man made structure on them. Typically, as cities grow, they expand on the edges[2]. Before, the edges were farmland that itself was hewn from a forest or meadow. Thus as cities grow, their edges expand and to maintain food production, farmed area expands. Earth has a finite limit to land space. Thus housing starts, by implication, mean loss of natural spaces.

  • The United States records about 2 million housing starts a year.
  • Let’s generously assume a hectare can support 25 houses without accounting for easements, utilities or roadways.
  • Each year then, 80,000 hectares disappear for housing.
  • The United States has 186 million hectares of cropland. This means over 2000 years remains before all croplands are gone. However, long before this, the crop supply will fail to provide the necessary nourishment.

A growth economy works well for infinite land cover. But, as cities grow and their food demands increase, the area of natural forest and meadowland decreases. Only 11% of the Earth’s land surface is reasonably arable land and all of it is already being farmed [3]. Marginal land is being used but at much greater cost in energy, water, fertilization and land degradation.

Housing starts do mean an increase in demand. Yet, the finite Earth can’t support an infinite demand. Sustainable development cries for an average economic growth of nil. Future civilizations must acknowledge this. As well, it must happen before all the natural areas disappear, that is, if we want any natural area in the future. Eventually housing starts must stop as there will be no new land to build, when do we decide to take this action?

  1. Starts
  2. Sprawl
  3. Arable
  4. Clock
  5. Land Use
  6. Farmland Loss
Grassland Suburb
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