The strong arm of the law. The mighty sword of the army. Strength prevails! And with it goes the spoils. The strong make the decisions. Their choice lies with improving their lot. The fate of others lies with the winnowed sheaves.

Human beings pushed themselves to the top of the natural ladder. No other creature can cope with our abilities; can withstand our progress; can counter our choices.

The Earth’s 13 billion hectares of land surface lie under our dominion. We use 37% for agriculture. Forests account for 30% of the remainder, most being subject to our commercial forestry practices. Poor land such as the glacial surfaces of Antarctic and Greenland make over 30% of the remainder. In other words, we’ve usurped nearly all the productive land surface for our desires.

Where will our desires take us? How will other creatures and plants survive? They can’t spread out and capture energy from the Sun, there’s no land. Will this designer land cover dictate our future or nourish it?

FAO

AVHRR Data

Imagine being from another planet. Your spaceship has failed. You are doomed. Then your scanners detect planet Earth. Marvelous you think. It has a climate that can support you. And since, in our imagination, this occurred 10 000 years ago then apparently only natural chemical reactions have changed the surface.

Approaching the planet, you see great spans of water interspersed with a few extents of land. Your spaceship needs a solid surface. And, you will need a solid surface from which to launch your new or repaired spaceship. You realize that you will need large quantities of material, fabrication facilities and an extensive transportation network. Access to ready energy supplies will ensure the construction and operation. With this, you believe that within a generation or two, you will have a viable spaceship ready to go.

However, you also realize that the planet is in an energy balance. The Sun provides enough energy to sustain life and keep most water on the surface in a liquid state. Should you interrupt this balance to save yourself and doom the natural flora and fauna? Or, do you extend the build period to tens or hundreds of generations? Or, do you decide not to return, but to stay on Earth and thus not effect the balance in any significant way?

The recent cold snap in North America in early 2009 shattered more than just temperature records. The severe cold spell pushed the temperature at the city of Quebec to a numbing -34C. In a 3 hour period from 6 am to 9 am, the residents of the Province of Quebec responded by consuming altogether 37,220 megawatts of electrical power, another record.

Quebec tapped into its extensive, natural water system to produce most of its electrical power. But, they also had to purchase power from adjoining districts. Luckily, some was available as the total energy demand exceeded 4e14 Joules for the three hours. If wood was the source of energy, the residents would have needed about 26 780 tonnes of wood (assuming a perfect energy conversion). With a generous estimate of 20 dry tonnes per hectare, then they’d need to burn the produce from 130 hectares of plantation woodlot just for this three hour span. That’s 130 hectares of wood that needs be chopped, dried, collected and delivered to each of the 8 million consumers. Thankfully our technology allows us to use water to drive electrical generators and save the wood for other purposes, at least for today.

Note

An interesting thing happens when economic times get tough. During a recession, there’s a marked switch in employment. Though overall employment decreases, the type of work differs. Jobs disappear in the resource, manufacturing and construction sectors. Jobs remain the same or increase in the service sector. Some countries, like Cuba, with minimal economic growth find that the service sector continually accounts for the majority of jobs.

The service sector, especially with health care, consumes large quantities of energy. But, most, like education, use much less. Hence, a recession should lead to a drop in energy usage. It should also see a reduction in humanity’s insatiable consumption of natural resources.

However, the service sector by definition exclusively contains inter-human activities. Growth in construction, exploration and development stalls or goes negative. So, if all our energy goes into the service sector, we restrict our choices for the future. Does a global recession indicate that we’ve reached the maximum extent of our civilization?

Enlightenment improves a civilization. First world countries aim for each resident to achieve a modicum of education (as with the Millennium Development Goals). Some individuals advance their education to include collegial or university education. These students typically become the leaders of tomorrow, thus they define the future and the course of civilization.

Typically, students select a vocation based upon interest and/or potential monetary compensation. In Canada, the top fields according to university enrolment of 2005/2006 are;

1. Social sciences 17%,
2. Business 16%,
3. Humanities 15%,
4. Health 10%,
5. Physical sciences 9%,and
6. Engineering 8%.

As well, with a student graduating at about 22 years of age, we know that we commit a large portion of our energy resources to nurturing them and maintaining the schools. With a student population of about 1 million then Canada commits about 2.7e17 Joules each year for educating potential leaders to guide civilization’s future. How do we ensure this is a sufficient and wise energy investment?

Data