Heat is a by product of energy usage. Whether muscles in a body, gasoline burning in a car, or volcanoes exploding  on the Earth’s surface, each results in a non-stoppable waste product known as heat. Add enough heat and the average temperature changes as mentioned in the ongoing debate on global warming.

Some pundits claim that the Antarctica ice cap may completely melt. That’s about 2.5e19 kilograms. The latent heat for water/ice is 334 kJ per kg. Melting all the ice would require 8.4e24 Joules (or 8.4 yottajoules). That’s 8 times the mount of energy from the Sun that falls on the Earth in one year. Human annual primary energy consumption is about 0.4e21 Joules (or 0.4 zettajoules).

It’s obvious that the direct usage of primary energy is insufficient to melt the ice. Yet, we know that only a few tens of millions of years ago, Antarctica nurtured plant life. In consequence, Earth’s climate must vary greatly and life must adapt.

Are we building a civilization that can adapt to climate variations? Should we use energy to optimize today’s living or both today and tomorrow’s living?

1. Ice caps melting

Photo-National Geographic

Cars with better mileage, electric cars, urban transport. These and other energy efficient measures continually implore us to save a little to save the planet. Replace the huge car that seats six adults and burns gasoline inside eight huge cylinders. Instead plug in an electric car that only occasionally uses a couple small cylinders for an extra umph. The previous twenty years show marked progress in reducing energy consumption while maintaining practicalities.

So, we would think that by now we’d start seeing some effect from this increased efficiency. However, you wouldn’t think correctly. In Canada, since 1990 the annual activity effect (the demand) saw an increase of 2585 petajoules annual consumption. Since 1990, the energy efficiency effect resulted in a savings of 1049 petajoules. The overall annual energy change from 1990 to 2006 was 1461 petajoules. Certainly the increased efficiency helped but we’re still using 21% more energy than in 1990.

As our civilization demands more energy, we grow more capable. But, we also become more dependent upon energy. If efficiencies can’t resolve our rapacious energy demand, where will our future lie when energy supplies flounder?

Efficiency data

Darwin’s view had the strongest survive. Ecologists applied heavy weighting to whatever species first snagged an available part of the ecosystem. Devine choice attributed changes to an omnipotent being.

Big game hunters shoot only the biggest and strongest male. Pohl Pot of the Khmer Rouge slaughtered all the intellects. The 30 Year War starting in 1618 in Europe eliminated over 60% of civilian populations during its campaign.

The Earth’s population nears 7 billion. It would be lucky to sustainably support 700 million people who each live an energy demanding technologically advanced life style. How does the population shrink by an order of magnitude? War, genocide and selective breeding are all possible. Which would be the best for Earth’s future generations and how do we make it happen.

We use 37% of the Earth’s 13 trillion hectares of land surface. That’s twice the area of North America. And, we use it purely for our selfish needs. We don’t share with other creatures or beings. On the land, we plant the crop of the day, use pesticides and herbicides to kill all other life forms, harvest the mature crop and repeat the process over the next year. Year in and year out.

To support this artificial monoculture, we apply fertilizer. Lots of it. 206.5 million tonnes in 2007/2008. At 6 gigajoules per tonne for manufacturing, this fertilizer needs about 1.2e18 Joules of energy each year. Gathering raw materials, transporting finished products and applying onto the field all requires much more energy.

What happens to the 4.8 trillion of hectares of land when we no longer have the energy supplies to gather, make, transport and apply this essential part of today’s agriculture. What happened to the life that used to call it home. What will happen to the billions of people who rely upon a dependable food source for their survival?

NASA