Pull up a chair and listen closely. I’m going to give you today’s lesson. It’s something neat. Something we’ve already taught here. This is more about the concept of energy returned on energy invested; EROEI. Don’t be frightened, it’s just reality of which I speak to you today.
Let’s begin. With great fanfare the U.S. Geological Society announced the identification of the largest oil and gas reserve in the continental US. “Big?” you ask. Yes it’s huge. About 20 billion barrels of oil and 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That’s equal to about 3 years of total petroleum consumption by the U.S. “What a wonderful discovery” everyone exclaimed. “We always knew that those peak-oil advocates we’re just spouting alarmist speech” they continued. Not only were car drivers happy but also national economists who envisioned a return of world leadership and luxuries for all. This is the first part of our lesson.
Now the average person is no slouch. They certainly would have thought “this can’t be new as we’ve already got a pretty good idea on what’s economically available.” Well some went further and punched the numbers. Art Berman at Forbes did this. He agreed that the oil and natural gas could be extracted using today’s technology. But at today’s prices it would cost $700M to extract. It would cost! Simply put, it would take more effort to get the energy out of the ground than would ever be returned. The EROEI would be less than one. How’s that for not being a slouch?
Knowing that all the easily extracted energy stores have long since been consumed do you wonder when the global EROEI will slip to less than one? What then my precious students?