Civilization's Future

The wonder of petroleum comes from its physical properties. At standard atmospheric temperature and pressure, this largely benign liquid flows with little extra effort. Because of this, we can easily refine it into petrol and have it readily available throughout a vast transportation network.

With the waning reserves of petroleum, we are devising different methods to produce this versatile store of energy. Joules Unlimited Inc. created an organism that secretes fuel. They estimate that their process is capable of producing 25 000 gallons of ethanol per acre per year (4.9e8 J/sq.m./a). This is quite impressive when considering that after 4.5 billion years of natural selection the best ecosystem, a tropical rain forest, has a net primary productivity of 3.8e7 J/sq.m./a.

Eventually brewing our own energy reserves will occur. But, with the Joules Unlimited rate, humanity’s current annual energy consumption of 4e20 J necessitates the allocation of 8e5 sq.km to energy production. This is about four times the area of the 250 largest cities on Earth. Where will we get the space, when will we start the effort?

Fire is the natural release of energy through chemical reactions. With forest fire season coming to the northern hemisphere, fires will almost instantaneously release all the pent up energy within the living organisms. Branches that once shaded the ground become ash and get blown hundreds of kilometres away. Creatures that once flew, ran and crawled through the forests understory, will lose their homes and likely their lives. While, we enjoy the warmth of fires in fireplaces, when unleashed these chemical monsters wreck havoc.

Fires occur naturally from such causes as lightning. However, the prevalent cause today is human action. Some people are concerned that the resulting effluent causes changes to Earth’s climate. This may be true. But, it’s also the complete release of the energy from the Sun that was captured by the flora and fauna. Once it’s gone, many years must pass before new growth can again capture the Sun’s energy, if we give it the chance to grow back.

Scientists estimate that each year humans burn biomass equivalent to 8700 teragrams of dry matter. Assuming the dry matter has an energy content of 20 megajoules per kilogram then annually we burn 1.74e20 Joules worth. This is almost half our annual consumption of primary energy (oil, coal gas). If we keep throwing away this vast reservoir of energy what will our future civilization have?

Suppose you were guaranteed food and shelter for the duration of your long assured life. What would you do to while away your time in this utopia? You could let natural instinct guide your destiny. Nurture a large family. Seek self-gratification in a whirl wind of indulgence and bliss. At the end of your life you would look back, perhaps smile, and say that was a million dollars well spent.

Yet, your utopia would be limited by the trappings of civilization that surround you. If you had movie theatres and an entertainment industry then you could safely voyeur through the imagination of others. With airlines and a travel industry you could see sights anywhere on the globe and maybe even hop into space to watch the Sun set through the layers of Earth’s atmosphere. However a million dollars on its own would never see these grandiose visions happen. Their provision can only result from a civilization where a large number of wealthy and poor people live and work together to make everyone’s utopia a possibility.

Where does happiness lie? Is it a guaranteed long, healthy life with family, personal pleasure and no risk of harm? Will it include helping others without any compensation? How do you coexist with those who need challenges, who accept a risk to life for a new experience? If everyone were to have a million dollars, would that mean that we’ve found utopia.

Photo-NASA

Louisiana is providing stark evidence of humankind’s folly. Our quest for energy pushes into ever higher risk ventures. Common business practise requires minimum cost for maximum returns. Today’s net result has a gusher from 5000 to 25000 barrels of light crude escaping overlying rock, spreading into the Gulf of Mexico and heading shoreward to beach upon large river deltas.

What does this net result mean to the energy picture? In short, the 3 months at 25000 barrels a day is about 1.4e16 Joules or 18 minutes worth of global consumption of primary energy. We’ve lost this. But, we’re also going to lose huge swathes of the Gulf’s ecosystem for potentially many years. Not only will many people be without employment but they will also be unable to forage off the land or coastal waters. As well, the natural system will crash and perhaps never come back to its original state. The net result is that we’ve irreparably harmed some of the Earth’s ecosystem while hoping to maintain our energy dependent lifestyles a little longer.

What is the acceptable maximum level of risk for energy extraction? Wouldn’t it be better to rebuild our civilization to end its reliance upon fossil fuels rather than wait until we’ve consumed all reachable supplies?

photo: NASA

Energy keeps our technology thriving and maintains the lifestyles to which we’ve gotten accustomed. While energy supplies increase, we never concerned ourselves with prioritizing or choosing parts of our lives, of our civilization, that merits retention.

Pakistan’s energy supply has hit a wall. The citizens want to retain and augment their energy hungry lifestyle but they are unable to afford it. In response, they are decreasing hours worked by government personnel, banning lit billboards and forbidding all-night wedding parties. With this, they hope to save 1500 MW a day even though their present shortfall is 3668 MW (about 4% of consumption). Their energy crunch time has arrived.

Pakistan is one country and they may be able to fund additions to their energy supply and distribution system. They may not. As the reserves of non-renewable energy diminish world-wide how will our species respond to the decrease in energy supply? What will we choose to keep and what will we choose to let go when the crunch time becomes global?