Stimulus Spending

August 19th, 2016

You know the old saying that goes “The only certain things in life are death and taxes”. True as it is, neither certainty is appealing. Death is a biological certainty. Governments needing money is a certainty of civilization. Let’s consider government stimulus spending. Apparently, this spending is a contrived opportunity for a government to get into a large amount of debt with no purpose other than to spend. Theoretically by them spending then the ratepayers will be encouraged to spend and thus boost the national economy. At least that’s the Keynesian saying.

Japan recently announced a stimulus spending package of from 130 to 270 billion dollars. Their national debt lies at about 10 trillion dollars. Sure Japan has the third greatest world economy on a GDP ranking but eventually the Japanese ratepayers will have to pay off all this debt. And all its accumulated interest. Will the workers of Japan have the energy to do so? Will they have the incentive to do so? Can the Earth provide enough base material to enable humans to constructively and industriously work to pay the debts of Japan and all other nations? And the debt of all the corporations? And the debt of all the individuals? How many acres of farmland, tonnes of ore and oceans of fish will we need to process to pay down the world debt of over 61 trillion dollars? And how many joules of energy will our machines need to do most of the processing work for us? Given that there’s a finite limit to the amount of non-renewable energy on Earth then a stimulus package may be inappropriate.

It used to be that we could run to the store to get food and run home again. Then we’d cook the food to eat and re-energize our bodies so that we could run some more. If we don’t re-energize then we might die as happened to Pheidippides running his marathon. Consider all humanity as running a race today. We are all running very hard trying to compete. We need energy at the end of our race. Energy is finite. Can we say that we have enough energy to recover from our race?

The Plane

July 17th, 2016

Don’t you just wish that we could keep all the luxuries and toys of our technological age forever? Imagine an inexhaustible supply of energy to power all our electronic gadgets, carry us to work and fly us around the globe. Is that what we’re imagining when we think that renewable energy can become our sole source of power? That would be a wonderful wish to have come true.

The Solar Impulse 2, a plane powered solely by the Sun, is certainly an engineering marvel and perhaps helping our wish come true. Within it, two people have flown around our world. Two people stayed within the confines of something close in size to a phone booth and hopped over oceans and continents to achieve this feat. How practical is this? Well, consider that these two people needed more than 1 year to circumnavigate our globe. Then compare this to the current air fleet. In just one year the world fleet flew over 3.57 billion people from one place to another. As well, they carried about 42 million tonnes of cargo over the same year. Further, its motive power came from the consumption of huge amounts of jet fuel; about 17 billion gallons or 2.2e18 Joules of energy. That’s huge! How long will it take for solar power planes to match this feat?

We certainly should keep on wishing and dreaming. It’s through these aspirations that we’ve already unlocked the capability and versatility of fossil fuels and transformed this Earth. So what does our imagination aspire us to for the age that’s to follow the technological age?
Solar Impulse 2

Electric Cars

June 15th, 2016

Can the electric car save us? Their sellers certainly want us to think so. And we know that ready transportation has become an essential enabler of our technological society. With it only little training and a slight twist of a wrist and a press of a foot can move ourselves prodigious distances. Given the coffee and sweets we typically bring along on the ride then not only do we use little body energy to move, we may actually gain stores of body energy. Yes, cars together with their associated infrastructure have been a boon to the individual. They may have saved many of us figuratively and literally.

But will they save our civilization? To propel themselves, traditional cars burn gasoline and translate some of the released energy to kinetic energy. On the other hand electric cars have batteries that store energy. They move when the battery’s stored energy is allowed to translate to kinetic energy. How much energy are we talking about? Assume all car petrol produced is used for cars. Then worldwide they consume 1.2E+17 Joules per day or 4.39E+19 Joules per year. If electric cars are to save us then all their batteries must be imbued with 1.2E+17 Joules every day because batteries are not a source of energy. They are simply an energy storage device. I leave it to you to calculate if solar collectors on your rooftop and everyone else’s would be enough to provide this amount of energy every day to save our civilization.

I consider it unlikely that solar collectors will provide enough energy for our civilization to continue with ready transportation for so many. But if not solar then from where? We know that 66% of all electricity today comes from non-renewable resources; coal, gas and oil. So, by using electric cars then we aren’t replacing the energy source. We’re simply changing its delivery mechanism. While electric transportation is cool and probably more efficient than gasoline powered transportation, on its own it won’t save civilization. We need other sources of safe reliable energy.

Puerto Rico

May 8th, 2016

From a long time back people have used stored energy to aid their living. Small fires released the energy in wood and for us they kept wildlife at bay, sterilized meat and broke down the long chemical bonds found in vegetables. Technology ensued as we learned to use other energy stores; charcoal, coal and oil. We’re now living in times whereby we rely upon massive amounts of energy to aid in our everyday living.

Puerto Rico is an island territory of the United States. It has an established infrastructure including roads, ports and airports which came with a current debt cost of $72B. Puerto Rico has 3.6M residents. Thus each owes $20571. Assume a barrel of oil costs $50 then each person owes 411.4 barrels. A barrel contains 5.86Joules of stored energy. Therefor each person owes 2.4e12Joules of energy. People operate at a rate of 10.08MJoules of energy per day. Thus the residents owe 2.3e5 days of operation to pay their debt. Or they owe 655 years of energy allocation to compensate for the debt. Let’s hope they live long and prosperous lives.

Will people on Puerto Rico work for 655 years to compensate for the stored energy they’ve expanded? How do we rationalize the current global debt load that’s ever increasing and debt defaults that are also increasing? As more political entities walk away from debt and more corporations file for bankruptcy then a lot of potential effort, potential energy, simply disappears. Can people afford to lose so many years of stored potential energy (debt) and still maintain our technological level? Is there a difference between stored potential energy and stored energy?


April 19th, 2016

Energy is on the critical path of success for our civilization. With it our technology continues to grow and mature. Without it, we may very quickly find ourselves without any functioning technology. Currently we rely upon cheap, high density, non-renewable energy sources such as oil and coal for most of our energy. Both have a calculable date for when their extracted energy equals the energy required to extract; i.e. the time when we are without.

Given such a precarious and dramatic prognosis then we’d think that we’d be cherishing the remaining accessible oil and using it as prudently as possible. Do we? I leave this for you to answer on your own. From another, revealing perspective consider the last discovered big oil field that occurred in 1999. The Kashagan oil field. It is huge. Its recoverable reserves could on its own provide almost half a year of current global consumption. Yet, after 17 years of development and with anywhere from $50B to $116B investment, the field lacks routine oil extraction. Could this be because the guardian nation, Kazakstan, scored a sobering corruption rank of 123 of 168 nations? Or could it be that extraction is so difficult that it already has an energy return on energy invested of nearly one? In any case, that oil field may be the last one still functioning as our technology falters.

But what of our path to success. Are we ready to embrace a civilization that relies upon less energy? Do we want to use our remaining high density energy in the most beneficial way? What is this way? When do we begin the discussion?