Civilization’s Future

This weekend, the ground underneath Chile shook and buildings came crashing while waves pummelled shorelines. The same happened recently in Haiti. Also this weekend a severe weather front blew into Western Europe’s coastline leaving structures ruined and many lives lost. All these events exhibit a natural, significant release of energy.

Investing effort and material into erecting long term structures seems futile. However, the pharaohs of ancient Egypt thought differently when building the great Giza pyramids. While the pharaoh might have hoped for an eternal building, we know that plate tectonics will eventually erase it and every other man-made or natural structure.

With a limited supply of quality energy available, how much of it should we invest in building structures that are, at best, temporary. Should we look for a more permanent structure on another planet or floating in space? Or, should we look at investing energy and effort in nurturing cultural mores and progressing societal values?

Humankind’s ingenuity continues. Thunder Horse is the world’s largest semi-submersible structure. It sucks up oil and natural gas from natural reservoirs 8000 metres beneath its platform. It cost about $5 billion US and has a projected lifetime of 25 years.

A projected daily capacity of 250 000 barrels of oil and 200 million cubic feet of natural gas amounts to a lifetime energy retrieval of 1.6e19 Joules; about 2 weeks worth at our current global consumption.

This is a one time shot, the natural resources will not replenish. After 25 years, the reserves are consumed, forever. Are we making the best use of this energy store? Do we even know where this energy will go?

photo-© BP p.l.c.

The Xingu River flows through much of Brazil’s rainforest and joins the Amazon before emptying into the ocean. Stretching from its head waters along 1450 km of countryside, it empties water at rates varying from 1000 to a staggering 30000 cubic metres per second. Along its length fourteen native tribes depend upon it for survival.

If the native tribes were left to their own devices then they would likely remain until a natural cataclysm, like a meteor, ruined the vast extent of countryside.

Now, in our unquenchable thirst for energy, we’ve set our eyes upon the Xingu’s great hydroelectric potential. At an estimated cost of $16B and a flooded area of 500 square kilometres, we expect a capacity of 11000 MW. However, silt will likely end this dam’s lifetime in about 200 years. A natural cataclysm would be in 100 000 years. Which is more sustainable?

Tis the season of portable energy. Phones, radios, toys all perform commanded functions given a supply of electrical energy. A common type is the 23 grams AA alkaline dry cell battery.

So expedient are these that the US produces over 3 billion dry cell batteries annually. Assuming all are alkaline, they consume about 1.38e6kg of Zinc, another 1.38e7kg of Iron and 1.725kg of Manganese. The remainder is electrolyte, plastic and paper carbon.

The energy cost of this material includes mining from the Earth, refining, transporting, fabricating, transporting, distributing, transporting, and, if lucky, recycling. All this effort is to annually provide 4.37e13 Joules (for all 3 billion batteries at 2700mAh).

If the same energy was available as food it would feed about 12000 people over the year. Yet there is no way that 12000 people could, unassisted by machines, ever make 3 billion batteries a year. Is this unbalanced application of energy wise or sustainable?

Borrow now as an investment in the future. Use the investment to make profits to pay back the debt. The mantra of economics trumpets this message over and over.

The US national gross debt is about $10trillion. New York State has a debt of $128billion (including public authorities). New York City has a debt of $59billion.  Personal household debt for the US is $11.4trillion. Residents of the US maintain a revolving credit card debt of $1trillion. Add this up to find a per capita debt load of over $73 510 per person. Yet, in New York City, the per capita annual salary is about $48 631.

Energetic work is needed to pay the debt. If the energy supply falters what does this mean for the future that we have so fully indentured?