December 3rd, 2016
Pull up a chair and listen closely. I’m going to give you today’s lesson. It’s something neat. Something we’ve already taught here. This is more about the concept of energy returned on energy invested; EROEI. Don’t be frightened, it’s just reality of which I speak to you today.
Let’s begin. With great fanfare the U.S. Geological Society announced the identification of the largest oil and gas reserve in the continental US. “Big?” you ask. Yes it’s huge. About 20 billion barrels of oil and 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That’s equal to about 3 years of total petroleum consumption by the U.S. “What a wonderful discovery” everyone exclaimed. “We always knew that those peak-oil advocates we’re just spouting alarmist speech” they continued. Not only were car drivers happy but also national economists who envisioned a return of world leadership and luxuries for all. This is the first part of our lesson.
Now the average person is no slouch. They certainly would have thought “this can’t be new as we’ve already got a pretty good idea on what’s economically available.” Well some went further and punched the numbers. Art Berman at Forbes did this. He agreed that the oil and natural gas could be extracted using today’s technology. But at today’s prices it would cost $700M to extract. It would cost! Simply put, it would take more effort to get the energy out of the ground than would ever be returned. The EROEI would be less than one. How’s that for not being a slouch?
Knowing that all the easily extracted energy stores have long since been consumed do you wonder when the global EROEI will slip to less than one? What then my precious students?
November 7th, 2016
Think of every being’s life as they go through a cycle from birth to growth and then finally death. Trees, birds and humans follow this progression; all being connected, all directly or indirectly linking with each other. Typically the success of an individual rests upon its ability to acquire resources, principally energy and chemical compounds. By linking this flow of resources we see how all life is connected as it progresses.
Blue whales wonderfully depict a point in this simple connection. Their principal source of resources is krill; a very small creature living in the ocean. A whale being the largest animal on earth eats lots of krill. By some accounts 3600kg a day. Today about 25,000 blue whales swim the oceans of Earth. That’s a consumption of 5.75E16 Joules of energy. That’s a lot! But long ago, before they were hunted to near extinction there were over 300,000 blue whales swimming the ocean. That’s 6.9E17Joules of the Earth’s animate energy budget assigned to these creatures.
In contrast consider the United States’ military. Yes they are at peace today. Still their annual consumption of fuel for Operational Energy is 5.1E17Joules.
Compare these values. See that the military force in peacetime consumes as much energy as the Earth’s ecosystem had allocated to the blue whale species before we nearly drove it to extinction. Does this mean people have more concern about physical strife and safety than they have concern for other species? Last, think of what happens when the connections between living things start breaking; think extinction. Does this breakage mean resources get freed up to humans or do they simply disappear?
October 16th, 2016
See our Sun gently break the line of the eastern horizon on its slow ascension to its mid-day peak. You sit quietly by the window. Watching and contemplating life. You slowly sip on the cup of fresh coffee you just prepared and you wonder how the people on Earth can stay vibrant when the Sun provides only finite energy.
Perhaps your thoughts will extend to the number of people all about. This is key. Take for example something as simple as your cup of coffee. You enjoy it but every day 2.5 billion other people enjoy a cup of coffee. That’s over 1.6e+11 litres of water annually for coffee. And 4.5e+9 litres of cream. And 3.6e+9 kg of sugar. Focusing solely on the coffee shows the sheer magnitude of human consumption. Coffee comes from the seed of the coffee plant. Each year humans harvest 8.6e+9 kg of seeds. That`s equal to 20 of the largest ship’s afloat today. The plants require 5.4e+6 hectares of suitable land. That’s larger than the area of Costa Rica. And just to brew the coffee requires 3e+10 kWh of energy, more than the total electric power produced by nuclear in Belgium. Do you see now how the sheer number of humans scales every common action to supersize.
Some have said that the purpose of life is to pursue happiness. Following this means that we will continue to enjoy our cups of coffee even if it means consuming the seeds from over 9 billion domesticated, particularized plants. They can’t make more plants as their seeds have gone. The land can’t support other life as it’s dedicated to coffee production. Should we consider the choices that we make as we sit back and enjoy the small things in life, like sipping on coffee and watching the Sun rise?
September 17th, 2016
A shining sun brings smiles to the faces of most people who wake up and see it in the morning. It’s a harbinger of good times for the day ahead. It warms us. It grows our plants. And it’s now directly powering our machines. The Sun is our friend.
China has the largest installed base of solar power at 43.2TWh. A truly amazing amount. China’s annual energy consumption is about 36065 TWh. A representative solar production is 2.3GWh per square kilometre which would thus require China to allocate 15.7 million square kilometres or 1.6 thousand million hectares to get all their power from solar. China has about 1000 million hectares of land area with about 72% already being allocated. Where will they get all that they need? Total primary energy used by humans on Earth in 2012 amounted to 155 505TWh. Using the same metric means this would require over 13% of all of Earth’s land area to be used for solar power plants. Does the Earth really have that much area to spare for solar power?
Our Sun, that amazing star so nearby, allures us ever on to greater feats. Can we rely solely upon it to keep us alive and to power our technology? Time will tell.
August 19th, 2016
You know the old saying that goes “The only certain things in life are death and taxes”. True as it is, neither certainty is appealing. Death is a biological certainty. Governments needing money is a certainty of civilization. Let’s consider government stimulus spending. Apparently, this spending is a contrived opportunity for a government to get into a large amount of debt with no purpose other than to spend. Theoretically by them spending then the ratepayers will be encouraged to spend and thus boost the national economy. At least that’s the Keynesian saying.
Japan recently announced a stimulus spending package of from 130 to 270 billion dollars. Their national debt lies at about 10 trillion dollars. Sure Japan has the third greatest world economy on a GDP ranking but eventually the Japanese ratepayers will have to pay off all this debt. And all its accumulated interest. Will the workers of Japan have the energy to do so? Will they have the incentive to do so? Can the Earth provide enough base material to enable humans to constructively and industriously work to pay the debts of Japan and all other nations? And the debt of all the corporations? And the debt of all the individuals? How many acres of farmland, tonnes of ore and oceans of fish will we need to process to pay down the world debt of over 61 trillion dollars? And how many joules of energy will our machines need to do most of the processing work for us? Given that there’s a finite limit to the amount of non-renewable energy on Earth then a stimulus package may be inappropriate.
It used to be that we could run to the store to get food and run home again. Then we’d cook the food to eat and re-energize our bodies so that we could run some more. If we don’t re-energize then we might die as happened to Pheidippides running his marathon. Consider all humanity as running a race today. We are all running very hard trying to compete. We need energy at the end of our race. Energy is finite. Can we say that we have enough energy to recover from our race?