Egypt

Egypt, home of the pyramids and first grand civilization on Earth. Now, over 80 million people live within its borders. Yet, these borders enclose barely 35000 sq kilometres of arable land. But, nearly 79 million citizens live in either Cairo or Alexandria. They look to the city for jobs and food. The city looks elsewhere for provisions.

Foreign food aid provides about a third of Egypt‘s food supply. This amounts to 1.35e17 Joules of energy. In addition, Egypt imports about 2e16 joules of energy to fertilize their ground for their crops.

An average of 2.7 children for every woman exasperates this by adding many more mouths than what started. They look to the government to ensure food supplies and a future for their children.

Is this sustainable? Food aid only comes when other countries have a surplus. Fertilizer is available only when natural gas is available. Demanding more energy than a region provides ensures a region is always dependent. How can a civilization progress when obtaining food takes all one’s effort?

  1. Factbook
  2. Earth trends
  3. Fertilizer

Cairo

Photo: UCLA


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Valuation

The end of the year brings reflection to some. Others receive a bonus. This cash stipend presumably rewards exceptional service. In 2007, five Wall Street banks gave over $39 billion to their employees. One person receiving over $50 million.

From public accounts, the government of Canada in 2007 held $48 billion of non-financial assets. If we exclude land which really is national and vehicles which quickly depreciate, the national assets amount to only $33 billion.

Compare these two. After 140 years of existence, Canadians have accumulated less than the rewards gifted by five banks in one year. This shows the strong tendency of people to invest in themselves for immediate gratification rather than for the long term benefit of the group.

However, with this trend, our species will never accomplish more than what an individual can accomplish in one lifetime. Heroic, or perhaps cruel, overlords could raise a massive, functionless tetrahedron in the middle of a desert. But, we don’t see multi-generational goals being achieved. Will the future or our species be limited to similar limited endeavours or will we choose loftier, long term goals that only a civilization could accomplish?

Pyramid
Photo from gov.eg


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Forests and Trees

Winter and snow, synonyms to most of us. Cold weather has many delights but is quite harsh on the human body. As we’re warm blooded, we use energy to fight the cold. Once the temperature drops below about 15C, we shiver, wear warm clothing, and, for many, reach for the house’s heating control.

England’s providential position has it in the path of the gulf stream so it’s much warmer than most other land masses at similar latitudes. Yet, for many months of the year, its residents add heat to remain comfortable. This amounted to 1e18 Joules for the year 2000. The primary source of this heat was burning of fossil fuels or nuclear power.

Not too long ago, the people of England burned charcoal for heat during the cold winter times. Charcoal is made by roasting wood. Assume an optimal ratio of burning 3 units of wood to roast one unit of charcoal. Also, charcoal has a density of 30 MJ/kg. Thus, the English would need 3e10 kg of wood to stay warm. Knowing harvest rates are about 200 tonnes of wood per hectare means they’d need harvest 0.15 million hectares to remain warm.

Now England’s forests have had their ups and downs. The Romans were purported to have seen a landscape nearly denuded of trees. Later, with the advent of sailing warships, so few trees remained that the English had to find trees in Scandinavia and North America. However, over the last 100 years, its forest have nearly doubled!, principally due to alternative heating sources. In 2005, England had just less than 3 million hectares of forest and woodland. So trees will continue to grow if they can.

So, simply to stay warm over 20 winters, the people of England would need to burn all their forests and woodlands if current energy sources cease. And, nothing would remain for subsequent years nor anything be available for other endeavors.

Should future plans address this problem or should we wait until the fossil fuels run dry and the forests start disappearing before we look for ideas?

Nottingham


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Iron Swords

Humankind’s Iron Age signifies another technological leap. Using knowledge gained from smelting soft copper and tin into bronze, we started smelting the vast quantities of iron that permeate the Earth’s crust. Out of the forges came wonderful fabrications such as nails, bolts, horseshoes, shields and swords. Forcing rocks into special utilitarian shapes facilitated the endavours of humans and made our species even more successful.

However, iron working was neither simple or cheap. A source of iron (like Magnetite – Fe3O4) had to be found and then mined. Then, the rock had to be purified by removing the oxygen and other unwanted material. A bloomery, or oven, heated the rock so as to force out the unwanted atoms. Introducing charcoal facilitates this process as the charcoal, or carbon, combines with the oxygen to make gaseous carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide which drifts away. The resulting sponge like mass, called a bloom, was again heated and hammered to continue with the removal of impurities and to shape the rock. The result, known as wrought iron, was well on its way to becoming an implement ready for humankind’s desires.

But this process had a high energy cost. Human labour dug the rock, carried it to the bloomery, and hammered the impurities out. Heating the rock (to about 1600C) required large quantities of wood. Most of all though was the charcoal cost. Charcoals is made by roasting wood. Therefore, wood was needed for both the roasting and to be roasted. This energy hungry process caused the denuding of the medieval European landscape.

The Cornwall bloomery consumed 340 acres of wood per year to produce 1000 tons of iron. Neglect the energy costs for the labour and the infrastructure. And, assume this bloomery used virgin, mature stands of trees with about 50 trees per hectare each about 50 metres in height. Using typical energy density values for trees, this results in 8e9 joules (8 GJ) of energy to produce one kilogram of iron.

In 2005 we produced approximately 1544 million metric tons of iron ore. If we still used trees as the energy (and chemical) source we’d need 72 million trees or 1.5 million hectares. Or, we would if this area of mature forest still existed. And, this is for one year’s worth of swords, ploughshares and every other iron implement.

The leaps we’ve accomplished with technology come at a cost. Maintaining a ready supply of iron gives us great quantities of durable goods. But iron will return to its oxidized state eventually. Hence their replacements require a continual energy supply. And, more people with more demands increase the requirements and thus the energy needs. Can we sustain the necessary energy supply to keep us at our desired technological level?

Cornwall

Sword


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Death

Before conception, each of us had no claim upon the Earth. With conception and the miracle of new life, we laid claim to huge numbers of atoms. Energy put these atoms into molecules and kept them moving and accumulating such that our human bodies evolved. At full life, we include about 75 kilograms worth of these unique little particles.

Eventually though, and hopefully after a long and full life, our bodies can no longer sustain themselves. Death signals the end of a journey that started long ago from two cells coming together.

Not so many years ago, upon death, a human body would lie on the Earth’s surface. Where-ever it fell, it would provide food to a host of other creatures. Some carnivore scavengers may take advantage but most of the body would feed little creatures, the detrivores. And, these little creatures would fall prey to larger creatures that would fall prey to even larger creatures and, in a grand circle, may provide food and energy for a new generation of humans.

If we prevent the detrivores from accessing the human body, its potential as food isn’t realized. Further, if we bequeath even more to the body, we reduce the amount available for other living things, whether small detrivores or new generations of humans. This legacy can only come from those with little view to or hope of future’s potential.

Cremation about 600 Megajoules per body
Funeral pyre about 400 kg of wood or 6000 Megajoules per body
Casket and vault over 500 kg of smelted and shaped metal, transported and buried
Burial vault small stone structure, human labour to gather materials and erect
Pyramid large stone structure, human labour to gather materials and erect

viking


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